In Brussels
An awkward silence settled in Brussels the day after Giorgia Meloni's victory. Everyone knows that the Union is no longer quite the same now that one of the founding countries will be governed by the extreme right, but hope that the rupture can be avoided. In the meantime, calm and caution reign.
The European Commission wishes to have “constructive cooperation with the new Italian authorities”. The executive arm of the Union, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the Commission, “works with the governments coming out of the elections of the countries of the European Union. It is no different in this case, ”says spokesperson Éric Mamer. “We will react to the actions of the new government,” explained the European Commissioner for Justice, Didier Reynders last week. Same story within the Council of the Union, where the Member States sit.
We are a far cry from the feeling of panic that reigned in the European institutions in 2018, in reaction to the government formed by the 5 Star Movement and the far-right Lega party of Matteo Salvini. “The uncertainty was greater. Here, we perceive a little better the trends on the bottom”, analyzes a diplomat. Giorgia Meloni notably reassured on the economic ground. No question of leaving the Union, nor the euro. On the contrary, “it has multiplied the signals to the markets and its European partners, affirmed that it does not intend to experiment with the public debt or the budget deficit of Italy”, summarizes a European diplomat. Which is essential in Brussels. Italy's public debt amounts to more than 120% of GDP and any aggressive market reaction could put Rome, and with it the entire eurozone, in a difficult situation. For this, however, Meloni's coalition will have to renounce certain campaign promises such as reducing taxes for all or increasing social spending. There is also little risk that the new coalition will question the post-Covid recovery plan (and the conditions attached to it), not being able to deprive itself of the 140 billion euros that Italy still has to collect.
It has also, from the start of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, aligned itself with Brussels, against Vladimir Putin. Despite the concern of seeing Matteo Salvini take control of Foreign Affairs, European diplomatic circles do not fear a blocking of sanctions against Russia.
However, tensions are anticipated on other issues. There is no doubt that the new government will make Brussels its privileged enemy in order to demonstrate that it protects Italian interests. The critical subjects will be immigration, societal issues (right to abortion, treatment of LGBTQI minorities) or the reluctance to carry out certain reforms on justice and the rule of law. Anticipating confrontations, Ursula von der Leyen tried to be firm last week. 'We will work with any democratic government that wants to work with us' but 'if things go wrong, we have the tools', she said, referring to new rule of law defense mechanisms available to the European executive.
On these subjects, like others, Paris and Berlin are losing support. And the Eurosceptic forces at work in Poland and Hungary have just gained a weighty ally. With Giorgia Meloni as Prime Minister, the group of conservatives and reformists will become the third force in the European Council, after the social democrats and the liberals. How can European political decisions be significantly changed? This remains unlikely, but the fear is that this trend will be confirmed in the European elections of 2024.
SEE ALSO - Meloni: what awaits the Italians
